Road to the Third World War
George Modelski, professor of international relations and member of my doctoral committee, was an expert on global wars. He traced five global wars, or series of wars in the last five hundred years. He identified the last two of these as the Napoleonic wars and the German wars, popularly called World War I and II. He observed that these global wars happen about every hundred years.
Global wars differ from regional or civil wars. They are fought across the globe on land and on sea. They are usually fought between alliances of many nations rather than single states. Their casualties are enormous. The reason why they are about one hundred years apart is that they are not primarily about border disputes or land acquisitions. Rather they are about who gets to set the global agenda and the so-called rules for the next century. As it becomes evident that control over the world system is the issue, nations increase their armaments and come closer together to counter a challenging alliance. Then the war is triggered when one of the alliances perceives a growing threat and a weakness in the other. Then, if provoked by actions that threaten the status quo, the war begins.
Even though we are one hundred years from the midpoint of the German wars, that, in itself, is not enough for alarm. However, when that is coupled with other similarities, it gets our attention. Because of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East alliances have been getting stronger, nations are increasing their armaments. As Germany built a fleet to challenge Great Britain prior to World War I, China now has increased its navy to challenge that of the U.S.. Japan is doubling its defense forces and European nations have increased their defense budgets. Russia, China and North Korea are solidifying their collaboration. They are joined by Iran, having a market for its oil and supplying drones. They are cheered on by Cuba, and Venezuela. All of these countries have suffered because of U.S. sanctions. This is why they are eager to change the world system. With the war in Ukraine, NATO was strengthened. In the Pacific the U.S. has allied with Japan, Australia and India to counter Chinese aggression.
Increased armaments and building stronger coalitions are done in the name of “keeping the peace.” However, with the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. they may prove to be the incitement to another world war. Even though Trump is an advocate of a strong military, his doubts about NATO and threats of tariff against foreign products, including those from our allies in Europe will bring about tensions in the western alliance. This will weaken the western alliance and efforts to contain Russian aggression in Europe. This may cause Russia to take over Ukraine and reclaim the corridor through Lithuania to Kaliningrad on the Baltic.
In the Pacific China and Russia have been courting India to refrain from supporting the western alliance and remain neutral, if not joining them in their efforts to change the world order. By strengthening North Korea, the eastern alliance will hope of neutralize Japan and South Korea. At this time there is a sufficient deterrence in the Pacific to keep China from invading Taiwan and a full-fledged dominance in the South China Sea. But that may change.
If Trump raises tariffs to 60 per cent on Chinese goods, it may further threaten China’s economy, which already is in difficulty. China may be moved to invade Taiwan to get even and keep the support of its people. This will likely lead to a U.S. response which can trigger the next global war. Before Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor and the beginning of World War II, The United States had threatened Japan’s economy with embargoes on oil and other goods. While this was done to restrain Japan’s efforts in its invasion of China, it was interpreted by Japan to be a mortal threat to its economy and status as a world power. It needed oil and was convinced that if it was free from U.S. naval interference it could get all the oil it needed from Indonesia. The oil embargo and attack on Pearl Harbor then were the triggers resulting in the second part of the so-called “German Wars”
There are several “off ramps” on this road to the Third World War. As China develops more trade in the Global South, it may not feel that threatened by the high tariffs and embargoes imposed by the U.S. and Europe. Another “off ramp” might be that because of inflation in the U.S, Trump will be hesitant to impose his threatened tariffs quickly enough to trigger the invasion of Taiwan.
There is much to pray for.